Thursday, August 07, 2008

Did The Packers Do The Jets A Favre?

1. The Jets will be better. Remember that the Jets were actually very good 2 years ago, and then suffered an offensive line meltdown second only to that suffered by the Rams last year. They have addressed this problem in the offseason and Favre should remain upright for the majority of the year.

2. I, for one, am relieved. No, this is not what I would have done, but it's also not the worst possible outcome, and getting back a pick with an escalator clause was pretty good.

3. Here are your NFC QBs by 2007 DYAR:

1. Tony Romo
2. Drew Brees
3. Matt Hasselbeck
4. Kurt Warner
5. Jeff Garcia
6. Donovan McNabb
7. Jason Campbell
8. John Kitna
9. Chris Redman
10. Tarvaris Jackson
11. Matt Moore
12. Brian Griese
13. Eli Manning
14. Marc Bulger
15. Alex Smith

(A quick word about Eli. You probably had the same reaction I did to this list, which is that Eli is not nearly this bad, however, a quick look at his conventional stats shows that this list correct, but incomplete. Eli was NOT good in the regular season. He threw almost as many picks (19) as he did TDs (23), and only completed 56% of his passes. The Giants relied primarily on defense, and the excellent running of Brandon Jacobs and later, Ahmad Bradshaw.

Eli did improve, and in fact played his best games at the end of the season and in the playoffs, but we're only looking at regular season stats here. This is a good example of why stats are a tool, and not "the law." I don't think that anyone would argue that Eli is worse than Brian Griese or Matt Moore, but if you understand that this stat does not count his best games because they took place in the playoffs, you will understand why this stat is incomplete. Some would argue that Eli is a top 5 NFC QB. That's probably not true either.

Remember, there was a time last year when the New York Media was seriously pondering the question of whether the Hefty Lefty Jared Lorenzen would give the Giants a better shot. Anyway, that's enough about Eli.)

Where do you see Aaron Rodgers slotting in to this list? I see him around 5 and no lower than 9 with the offense at his disposal.

4. Aaron Rodgers is not Ted Thompson's Cabana Boy. The Packer front office is very businesslike, and while you may (and do) disagree with his strategy, he is not going with Aaron Rodgers because of some personal affection. He has built a team with zone-blocking offensive line, great WRs, and a solid defense. I suspect he wants to invest less at QB. I also suspect that he wants a less turnover prone QB. (Please do not confuse this with MY opinion. This is what I think he thinks, not what I think. I think.) Rodgers is signed for this year and next year, and playing him now also helps to eliminate uncertainty about what to do when he is up for free agency. If he sucks, they can move on. If not, they can sign him.

Cost/benefit analysis went into this decision, not nepotism. Just because you don't like it doesn't make that untrue.

5. If you stop rooting for the Packers because of this, you are a traitor.

6. That said, there's nothing wrong with ALSO cheering for Favre, especially since he can make our draft pick more valuable. And because he plays the evil Patriots twice.

7. The Packers will probably still be good.

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