Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Pythagorean Record in the N.L. Central Tweaked

Here's the same spreadsheet I posted here with a tweak...let's take a look. Note...this is not updated after the Sheets start against the Jays.


16-Jun-2008

Milwaukee Cubs St. Louis
Games 70 70 71
Runs For 313 387 334
Runs Against 321 279 310
Pythagorean Run Factor 0.4874 0.6580 0.5372
Predicted Wins 78.96 106.60 87.03
Predicted Losses 83.04 55.40 74.97
Runs Scored Per Game 4.47 5.53 4.70
Runs Allowed Per Game 4.59 3.99 4.37
Runs/Game Differential (0.11) 1.54 0.34





Projected vs. Actual

70 games 70 games 71 games
Actual Wins 37 45 42
Actual Losses 33 26 30
Projected Wins 34.12 46.06 38.14
Projected Losses 35.88 23.94 32.86
Differential Wins 2.88 (1.06) 3.86


The tweak is in the actual games played. I got the "Differential Wins" from a post by Silverwolf.

According to the Pythagarean Formula, the Crew has won three more than they "should" win and the Cards are almost 4 games "ahead". Troubling is the fact that the Cubs should have one more win.

Before you get all stats on me, let me say this. I'm doing this for fun and comparison. If you go all stats on me, I'll unleash my staff, consisting of retired Gurkahs on you.

Anyway, this is fun stuff....at least to me. Hope it is for you, too.

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