How Worried Are You about Davidson?

I am worried for the following reasons:

1. Curry has turned into a story, which can sometimes influence how things are called. Wisconsin puts bodies on people. If Curry shoots 20 free throws, Davidson will probably win.

2. Wisconsin kills their opponent's FG%. The thing is, Davidson doesn't shoot a great percentage anyway, especially from 2-point land. They use Curry-for-3 and a bunch of FTs to make up for a lackluster Field Goal percentage. This may neutralize some of Wisconsin's defensive superiority.

3. Wisconsin reminds me of Georgetown. That's Georgetown with a tough interior D, good guard play, and a stifling defense. Curry just ran and ran and ran around screens until he wore out his guy and got open looks in the second half.

4. We will be viewed as the favorite. This doesn't really hurt us, but it will make it annoying to watch as announcers fawn over Davidson.

5. If Flowers gets in foul trouble, all hell could break loose.

Why I'm confident:

1. Michael Flowers is the best defender of 1s and 2s in college basketball. Curry will not have seen the likes of him before. As long as he is on the floor, life will be miserable for Davidson. If he does get in foul trouble, Bo MUST somehow manage to keep him around for the end.

2. We should still dominate the interior. We should get more possessions due to our rebounding, and we should keep them at the perimeter. Because of this, Wisconsin should be able to weather a tough shooting night, should one pop up, but...

3. Wisconsin should shoot the ball well over a smaller opponent. Look for Jason Bohannon to have a big game when Wisconsin goes small.

4. Slow-time. Limiting possessions usually plays to the underdog, but not for Wisconsin and not when you're playing a jumpshooting team. Had Georgetown shaved about 4-5 possession off of their game, they probably would have won. Keeping the Curry-defender fresh is important. Georgetown lost because that guy broke down. Wisconsin is deliberate, which magnifies poor jumpshooting nights (by limiting an opportunity for regression to the mean to kick in).

5. Marcus Landry. We've been focusing so much on guards, what about Marcus? Sometimes, bigger forwards can take Marcus out by denying him the ball, but if Marcus has a small-conference forward on him, look out. Marcus will live in the lane this game, and repeatedly jump over people for easy buckets.

I'm a bit worried, but ultimately I suspect that Michael Flowers will do his job. If he does, Davidson cannot win.