Sunday, November 26, 2006

BCS regurgitated

Damn, but the computers just demonstrated some serious fluid-swapping love for Boise State, the SEC, the Big East and the wholly-undeserving Notre Dame at the expense of the Big 10. It looks like a 2-loss SEC team will take one of the 1-to-2 "at-large" bids, with the other to go to either a 1-loss Louisville or a 2-loss Notre Dame (a Notre Dame bid could still be in the form of an automatic bid).

Recapping the BCS top 10 (with an idle Notre Dame at #10) plus Big Conference teams that can still win their conference, with those locked into the BCS in bold and those locked out because of the very stupid 2-team rule struck out:

1. Ohio State (12-0, won the Big 10) - #1 Harris (1.000 average)/#1 Coaches (1.000)/#1 computer (1.000)/1.000 average - Next game, BCS Championship as BCS #1 and Big 10 champ
2. USC (10-1, won the Pac-10) - #2 Harris (.951)/#2 Coaches (.947)/#2 computer (.940)/.946 average - Next game, at UCLA, then either the BCS Championship as BCS #2 or the Rose Bowl as the Pac-10 champ
3. Michigan (11-1) - #3 Harris (.917)/#3 Coaches (.917)/#3 computer (.930)/.922 average - Next game, a BCS bowl game as BCS #3 or the BCS Championship as BCS #2 (neither Florida nor Louisville, the 2 teams close to them that play next week, will leapfrog them)
4. Florida (11-1) - #4 Harris (.887)/#4 Coaches (.892)/#4 computer (.890)/.890 average - Next game, against Arkansas for the SEC championship and the Sugar Bowl, may still get the SEC at-large bid if they lose
5. LSU (10-2) - #5 Harris (.805)/#5 Coaches (.797)/#5 computer (.830)/.811 average - Next game, either the Capital One Bowl vs Wisconsin or a BCS bowl as the SEC at-large team (the BCS bowl is an almost certainty if Florida beats Arkansas)
6. Louisville (10-1) - #7 Harris (.763)/#7 Coaches (.742)/#6 computer (.780)/.762 average - Next game, vs Connecticut (Louisville will take the Big East championship if West Virginia beats Rutgers and either they beat UConn or finish ranked higher than Rutgers and higher than or equal to West Virginia), will likely go to a BCS bowl as the Big East at-large team if they beat UConn and do not win the Big East
7. Wisconsin (11-1) - #6 Harris (.764)/#6 Coaches (.775)/#12 computer (.590)/.710 average - Next game, the BCS Rejects...er...Capital One Bowl vs the best SEC team not in the BCS (LSU, Florida, Arkansas or Auburn depending on the SEC championship game)
8. Boise State (12-0, won the WAC) - #9 Harris (.657)/#9 Coaches (.646)/#7 computer (.720)/.674 average - Next game, a BCS bowl as the highest-ranking mid-major conference winner
9. Arkansas (10-2) - #8 Harris (.663)/#8 Coaches (.662)/#9 computer (.660)/.662 average - Next game, at Florida for the SEC championship and the Sugar Bowl berth, would go to either the Capital One Bowl against Wisconsin or the Outback Bowl against Penn State if they lose
10. Notre Dame (10-2) - #10 Harris (.619)/#12 Coaches (.589)/#8 computer (.670)/.626 overall - Next game, the Gator Bowl or a BCS bowl (as the 2nd and last at-large team if Louisville either wins the Big East or loses to UConn, or as an automatic "at-large" bid if they climb over a losing Louisville and a losing Arkansas to the top 8)
12. Oklahoma (10-2) - Next game, vs Nebraska for the Big 12 championship and the Fiesta Bowl, will go to a non-BCS bowl if they lose
13. Rutgers (10-1) - Next game, at West Virginia (Rutgers will take the Big East championship if they beat West Virginia), will go to a non-BCS bowl if they do not win the Big East)
15. West Virginia (9-2) - Next game, vs Rutgers (WV will take the Big East championship if they beat Rutgers, Louisville loses to Connecticut, and they climb over Rutgers and Louisville in the final rankings, will go to a non-BCS bowl if that doesn't happen)
17. Wake Forest (10-2) - Next game, at Georgia Tech for the ACC championship and the Orange Bowl, will go to a non-BCS bowl if they lose
20. Nebraska (9-3) - Next game, at Oklahoma for the Big 12 championship and the Fiesta Bowl, will go to a non-BCS bowl if they lose
22. Georgia Tech (9-3) - Lost to Georgia 15-12 - Next game, vs Wake Forest for the ACC championship and the Orange Bowl, will go a non-BCS bowl if they lose

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